"Fuzzy Multi-Agent Simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic Spreading"
Résumé
In this paper, we present a new approach for Covid-19 Pandemic spreading
simulation based on fuzzy multi agents. The agent parameters consider distribution
of the population according to age, and the index of socio-economic fragility. Medical
knowledge affirms that the COVID-19 main risk factors are age and obesity. The worst
medical situation is caused by the combination of these two risk factors which in almost
99% of cases finish in ICU. The appearance of virus variants is another aspect parameter
by our simulation through a simplified modeling of the contagiousness. Using real data
from people from West Indies (Guadeloupe, F.W.I.), we modeled the infection rate of the
risk population, if neither vaccination nor barrier gestures are respected. The results
show that hospital capacities are exceeded, and the number of deaths exceeds 2% of the
infected population, which is close to the reality.
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